📅 May 16, 2026📋 Version 1.0🏛️ Sources: USTR, CBP, CIT, Federal Register
Executive Summary — Key Findings
Combined duty rates on Chinese goods can reach 145%+ for electronics and consumer goods
Section 232 steel tariffs increased to 50% as of April 7, 2026 — up from 25%
Section 122 tariffs (10% baseline) invalidated by CIT on May 7, 2026 — refund window open
$166B+ in IEEPA refunds available via CAPE portal for qualifying entries
Section 301 remedy determinations for 16+ economies due July 24, 2026 — most consequential tariff date of 2026
De minimis threshold collapsed from $800 → $50 for most countries; eliminated for China
USMCA joint review scheduled July 1, 2026 — rules of origin compliance is critical
Published: May 16, 2026 · Sources: USTR, CBP, Court of International Trade, Federal Register, USITC · View Sources
⚠️ Critical Dates: May 7 — Section 122 invalidated, file refunds now · July 1 — USMCA review · July 24 — Section 301 determinations for 16+ economies
1
US Import Tariff Landscape Overview (May 2026)
The current US tariff structure is not a single number — it's a stack of up to five overlapping duties that apply simultaneously depending on the product and origin country. The 2026 tariff landscape is the most complex in modern history.
Tariff Layer
Authority
Rate
Status
Section 301
Trade Act 1974
7.5%–145%
Active (China, some other economies)
Section 232
Trade Expansion Act 1962
25%–50%
Active (steel, aluminum)
Section 122
IEEPA
10% baseline
⚠️ INVALIDATED May 7, 2026
Reciprocal tariffs
IEEPA (proclaimed)
Varies by country
Paused / negotiating for most
Retaliatory (§301)
Trade Act 1974
0%–84%
Active (targeted economies)
De minimis
CBP
0% (exempt)
Eliminated for China; $50 for others
Example tariff stack for Chinese consumer electronics: Section 301 List 3 (25%) + April 2025 escalation (84%) = 109%+ effective duty rate before freight and insurance.
Example tariff stack for Chinese-origin steel: Section 232 (50%) + Section 301 derivatives (25%–75%) + retaliatory (up to 25%) = 75%–100%+ effective rate.
Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 is the primary authority for US tariffs on Chinese goods and targeted third-country goods. These tariffs were initiated in 2018, expanded through 2024, and escalated to 84% additional duties on all remaining Chinese goods in April 2025.
2A. Timeline of Section 301 Tariffs on China
Date
Action
Scope
Rate
July 6, 2018
List 1
~$34B of goods
25%
August 23, 2018
List 2
~$16B of goods
25%
September 24, 2019
List 3
~$300B of goods
15%
February 14, 2020
Phase 1 deal
50% of List 1 reduced
7.5%–15%
May 14, 2024
Biden tariff hikes
EVs, solar, batteries, semiconductors
100%+ on some
April 8, 2025
Trump escalation
All remaining Chinese goods
+84% additional
2B. Current Section 301 Rates by Product Category (China)
Product Category
HTS Range
Section 301 Rate
EVs and lithium batteries
8708.10–8708.99
100%
Solar cells and panels
8541.40–8541.50
50%
Semiconductors
8541.10–8541.40
50%–100%
Medical equipment
9018–9022
50%–100%
Steel products
7206–7210
25%–75%
Aluminum products
7601–7610
10%–75%
Consumer electronics (smartphones)
8517.13
0% (currently exempt)
Consumer electronics (laptops/tablets)
8471.30
0% (currently exempt)
Toys and games
9503–9506
25%–35%
Textiles and apparel
50xx–63xx chapters
25%–35%
Furniture
94xx chapters
25%–35%
April 2025 escalation (all remaining)
All remaining
+84% additional
Note on exemptions: Smartphones and laptops are currently exempt from Section 301. This status may change following the July 24, 2026 remedy determinations. Monitor USTR announcements closely.
Section 232 tariffs on steel were increased from 25% to 50% effective April 7, 2026. USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico remain at 0% — creating a significant cost advantage for importers who can document North American origin.
3A. Current Steel Tariffs
Product
Origin
Rate
Effective Date
Steel articles
All countries
50%
April 7, 2026
Steel articles
Canada (USMCA compliant)
0%
USMCA compliant
Steel articles
Mexico (USMCA compliant)
0%
USMCA compliant
Steel articles
Australia
0%
Bilateral agreement
Steel derivative products
Various
25%–50%
April 2025
3B. Current Aluminum Tariffs
Product
Origin
Rate
Effective Date
Aluminum articles
All countries
25%
April 7, 2026
Aluminum articles
Canada (USMCA compliant)
0%
USMCA compliant
Aluminum articles
Mexico (USMCA compliant)
0%
USMCA compliant
Aluminum articles
Australia
0%
Bilateral agreement
Duty savings opportunity: USMCA-compliant steel from Canada and Mexico saves 50 percentage points versus third-country steel. Importers who can document USMCA origin should prioritize this classification.
4
Section 122 Tariffs — Invalidated May 7, 2026
On April 2, 2025 ("Liberation Day"), President Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports under IEEPA authority. On May 7, 2026, the Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that this exceeded presidential authority and invalidated Section 122 tariffs, ordering CBP to process refunds.
Action required now: All Section 122 tariffs collected are subject to refund. Review your entry history for 10% baseline tariff payments and file via the CAPE portal. This refund window may be time-limited pending any appeal.
How to File for Section 122 Refunds
1 Access the CAPE portal at cbp.gov/cape (requires ACE account)
Reciprocal tariff rates vary significantly by economy. Most countries are in active negotiations with reduced or paused rates. China faces the highest rates — 84% reciprocal on top of existing Section 301 duties.
5A. Current Reciprocal Tariff Rates by Economy
Economy
Reciprocal Rate
Notes
China
84%
Plus Section 301 — highest combined rate
European Union
20% (paused at 10%)
Under negotiation
United Kingdom
10%
Bilateral framework in progress
Japan
10%
Bilateral framework in progress
South Korea
10%–25%
USKOR agreement
Taiwan
10%–32%
ART framework
Vietnam
46% (negotiating)
High rate under review
India
26% (negotiating)
Under review
Canada
25% (USMCA exempt)
USMCA rules apply for qualifying goods
Mexico
10% (USMCA exempt)
USMCA rules apply for qualifying goods
6
De Minimis Threshold Changes
The $800 de minimis exemption — previously one of the highest in the world — has been dramatically curtailed. Chinese goods no longer qualify, and the threshold for all other countries was reduced from $800 to $50.
Origin
De Minimis Threshold
Status
China
Eliminated
As of May 2, 2025. Full duties + Section 301 apply
EU
$50
Reduced from $800
All other countries
$50
Reduced from $800
Canada (USMCA)
$50
Pending review
Mexico (USMCA)
$50
Pending review
E-commerce impact example: A $50 Chinese consumer product that cost $0 in duties under de minimis now incurs $42+ in duties (84% effective rate). Direct-to-consumer brands sourcing from China face fundamental unit economics changes.
7
IEEPA Refund Programs — $166B+ Available
Importers who paid Section 232 and Section 301 duties may be eligible for refund via the CAPE portal for entries paid under IEEPA authority. The CIT's May 7, 2026 ruling on Section 122 significantly expanded the pool of eligible refund claims.
$166B+
Estimated total refund pool (Section 232 + Section 301 + Section 122)
CAPE
CBP's portal for filing IEEPA refund declarations (cbp.gov/cape)
Phase I
Currently covers straightforward entries; Phase II for complex entries TBD
How to File via CAPE Portal
1 Register for the ACE portal at cbp.gov/ace
2 Identify eligible entries — look for IEEPA-authority duty payments in your entry history
3 Obtain customs broker assistance for complex entries with multiple duty layers
4 File CAPE declaration — Phase I covers straightforward entries now
5 Track refund status via ACE portal; Phase II launch date TBD
8
USMCA Review — July 1, 2026
USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico receive preferential duty treatment. Rules of origin require minimum 70%–75% regional value content (RVC). The joint USMCA review is scheduled for July 1, 2026 — the first formal review since the agreement entered force in 2020.
Why USMCA compliance is critical in 2026: USMCA-compliant steel pays 0% Section 232 duty vs. 50% for third-country steel. USMCA-compliant aluminum pays 0% vs. 25%. The savings per shipment can be substantial for high-volume importers.
What Importers Should Do Before July 1, 2026
1Audit current sourcing — identify which imports from Canada and Mexico qualify for USMCA
2Update supplier documentation — ensure certificates of origin are current and accurately reflect RVC
3Calculate RVC for affected products — minimum 70%–75% regional value content required
4Review supply chain routing — ensure goods aren't transshipped through non-USMCA countries
9
Section 301 Remedy Determinations — July 24, 2026
July 24, 2026 is the statutory deadline for the Trump administration to announce Section 301 remedy determinations for investigations covering 16+ economies. This is the most consequential tariff date of 2026.
Potential outcomes: No new tariffs (current structure maintained) · Targeted new tariffs (15%–50% on specific sectors) · Broad tariff expansion ($100B+ in additional goods) · China escalation (possible 100%+ on remaining Chinese goods)
Action Items Before July 24
1Classify all products — ensure HTS codes are accurate for all imported goods
2Check current tariff exposure — identify which economies and products are under active investigation
4Pre-position inventory — consider 60–90 day safety stock for products likely to face new tariffs
5Review supplier contracts — add tariff pass-through provisions before determinations are announced
10
Forced Labor Enforcement — 60+ Economies
US CBP continues to enforce Withhold Release Orders (WROs) and findings under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA). The UFLPA creates a rebuttable presumption that goods produced wholly or in part in Xinjiang are made with forced labor.
60+
Economies under active forced labor enforcement scrutiny
$400M+
Goods detained at US ports in 2024
UFLPA
Rebuttable presumption applies to Xinjiang-origin goods in supply chain
Major enforcement categories include electronics, solar panels, textiles, polysilicon, and agricultural products. Importers must maintain complete supply chain documentation and be prepared to demonstrate UFLPA compliance at the port of entry.
These examples illustrate the full tariff stack and total landed cost for common import scenarios. All examples assume $100 FOB value.
Chinese Consumer Electronics
HTS: 8471.xx, List 3 goods
FOB value$100.00
Section 301 (List 3)+$25.00
April 2025 escalation+$84.00
Freight & insurance+$5.00
Total Landed Cost$214.00
Effective duty rate: 109% of FOB
Chinese-Origin Steel
Section 232 + Section 301 stacked
FOB value$100.00
Section 232 tariff+$50.00
Section 301 (steel)+$25.00
Freight & insurance+$8.00
Total Landed Cost$183.00
Effective duty rate: 75% of FOB
USMCA-Compliant Canadian Steel
Section 232 exempt via USMCA
FOB value$100.00
Section 232 (USMCA exempt)$0
Freight & insurance+$10.00
Total Landed Cost$110.00
Effective duty rate: 0% of FOB
12
HTS Code Classification
Every tariff analysis starts with correct HTS classification. Misclassification is the leading cause of CBP penalty cases — resulting in either underpayment (penalties, interest, retroactive assessment) or overpayment (unnecessary cost).
Misclassification penalties: Up to 4× the unpaid duties for gross negligence. CBP issued over $600M in penalty claims related to misclassification in FY2024. Importers are legally responsible for entry accuracy even when using a licensed broker.
2 Cross-reference with USITC DataWeb (dataweb.usitc.gov)
3 Work with a licensed customs broker for complex multi-component products
4 Request a CBP binding ruling for certainty on high-value products
13
Savings Opportunities by Product Category
Sourcing shifts from China to alternative origins can yield significant duty reductions. These estimates reflect 2026 effective rates and assume comparable product quality and logistics costs.
Section 301 tariff rates on Chinese goods in 2026 range from 7.5% to 145%+, depending on the product category. EVs and lithium batteries face 100% rates, solar cells and panels face 50%, and general consumer goods face 25%–35% on Lists 1–3. The April 2025 escalation added 84% additional tariffs on all remaining Chinese goods, pushing combined effective rates on electronics and consumer goods to 109%–145%+. See Section 2 for the full product category breakdown.
File via the CAPE portal at cbp.gov/cape (requires an ACE account). Identify entries where IEEPA-authority duties were paid, gather entry documentation, and file a CAPE declaration. Phase I covers straightforward entries. The May 7, 2026 CIT ruling also opened a refund window for the 10% Section 122 baseline tariff. An estimated $166B+ in refunds is available. See our full IEEPA Refund Guide for the complete walkthrough.
The USMCA joint review is scheduled for July 1, 2026. USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico receive preferential duty treatment, including 0% Section 232 duty on steel (vs. 50% for non-USMCA) and 0% on aluminum (vs. 25%). Rules of origin require minimum 70%–75% regional value content. Before July 1, audit sourcing, update certificates of origin, and calculate RVC for all affected products.
The de minimis exemption for Chinese shipments was eliminated entirely as of May 2, 2025. Chinese goods that previously entered duty-free now face 84%+ effective rates. For all other countries, the threshold dropped from $800 to $50. A $50 product from China that cost $0 in duties now incurs $42+ in duties. E-commerce brands and direct-to-consumer sellers sourcing from China face fundamental unit economics changes.
July 24, 2026 is the statutory deadline for Section 301 remedy determinations covering 16+ economies. Before this date: (1) classify all imported goods by HTS code, (2) identify current tariff exposure for products under active investigation, (3) identify lower-tariff origin alternatives, (4) pre-position 60–90 day safety stock for high-risk categories, and (5) review supplier contracts for tariff pass-through provisions. See Section 9 for the full action plan.