Section 122 Tariff Expires July 24, 2026: What Comes Next for Importers
The Trump administration's 15% Section 122 import surcharge — the tariff that replaced IEEPA after the Supreme Court struck it down on February 20, 2026 — has a hard expiration date baked into statute. July 24, 2026. 150 days. No extensions without Congress.
Every CFO and supply chain manager importing goods right now is asking the same question: What happens after July 24? The answer isn't simple. Three distinct scenarios are in play, with very different implications for landed cost, inventory strategy, and supplier contracts. Here's what we know.
Current Tariff Stack — April 2026
Importers today face a multi-layer tariff structure. Section 122 is the newest addition — and the one with a ticking clock.
| Tariff Layer | Rate | Applies To | Expires? |
|---|---|---|---|
| MFN Base Rate | 2–5% avg | All goods, all countries | No — permanent |
| Section 301 | 7.5–100% | Chinese goods (Lists 1–4) | No — permanent |
| Section 232 | 25–50% | Steel, aluminum; 25% autos | No — permanent |
| Section 122 ⏳ | 15% | Most non-USMCA, non-232 goods | YES — Jul 24, 2026 |
Section 122 is additive. A Chinese-origin consumer electronics product already paying 25% Section 301 now pays an additional 15% Section 122 — total effective rate 40%+, before MFN base. USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico are exempt. Section 232 goods (steel, aluminum, autos) are also exempt.
Timeline: From IEEPA to What's Next
The 3 Scenarios After July 24
Three distinct paths exist for what happens when Section 122 expires. They're not equally likely — and they have very different implications for importers.
Why this is most likely: Section 301 has no expiration date and no rate cap. It's the administration's most durable tariff authority. Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly stated tariffs will return to pre-SCOTUS levels by August 2026. The Section 301 investigations are on exactly that timeline.
Why this is plausible: The administration has already demonstrated willingness to invoke emergency authorities aggressively. A reset requires only an executive declaration — no Congressional vote. Effective rate: 15%, same as current. Timeline effectively extends to December 2026 and can be reset again.
Why this is unlikely: Both chambers already voted to disapprove IEEPA-based tariffs earlier in 2026. Election season reduces appetite for divisive trade votes. A Congressional extension requires passing legislation — an enormous lift in the current environment.
The question for importers is not "will tariffs go away after July 24?" — they almost certainly won't. The question is "will the rate be 15% (same as now) or higher (Section 301)?" Treasury Secretary Bessent's public statements point toward rates returning to pre-SCOTUS levels, which for Chinese goods means 25%+ Section 301. Plan accordingly.
What Importers Should Do Before July 24
The window before expiration is actually a strategic window — either to take advantage of potentially lower rates (Section 122 is known; what replaces it may be higher), or to prepare for higher permanent tariffs.
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Model landed costs under all 3 scenarios. Run your top 10 import SKUs through current Section 122 rates, then model Section 301 replacement at 25% and reset at 15%. Use /calculate to see full tariff stacking across all layers.
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Accelerate pre-deadline shipments. If Section 122 is replaced by higher Section 301 rates, the current 15% window may be the lowest tariff environment for the foreseeable future. Evaluate front-loading inventory where carrying costs are justified by tariff savings.
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Audit USMCA qualification. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico are exempt from Section 122 — and will likely be exempt from Section 301 as well (per the current administration's approach). Use /fta-optimizer to identify which products can qualify.
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Review HTS classifications now. New Section 301 investigations could reclassify tariff exposure for goods from Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, and the EU. Use /classify to verify your classifications are accurate before new rates take effect.
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Build inventory buffer before potential Section 301 implementation. Section 301 typically takes effect 30–60 days after USTR publishes findings. The window between late summer announcement and effective date is the last opportunity to import at current rates.
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Check Section 122 exemptions for your products. Beyond USMCA, Section 122 exempts Section 232 goods (steel, aluminum, autos), critical minerals, select pharmaceuticals, and aerospace components. Use /section-122-analyzer to verify whether your goods qualify.
Section 301 Investigations Timeline
The most likely replacement for Section 122 is a new round of Section 301 tariffs — the same authority used for existing China duties, but now targeting 60+ additional economies. Here's what the investigations cover and when findings are expected.
Section 122 has a hard 150-day cap and a 15% rate ceiling. Section 301 has no expiration date and no rate cap. Once Section 301 tariffs are imposed, they require affirmative Congressional action or a presidential determination to remove — and have historically stayed in place for years. The existing China Section 301 tariffs (enacted 2018) are still in full effect in 2026.
| Investigation | Scope | Hearings | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forced Labor Practices | 60+ economies (China, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Mexico, EU) | April 28, 2026 (USITC) | In Hearings |
| Manufacturing Overcapacity | 16 economies; focus: steel, aluminum, solar, EVs, chemicals | May 5, 2026 (USITC) | In Hearings |
Source: Federal Register Notice 2026-05151 (March 17, 2026). Public comment periods closed April 15, 2026.
Key facts about Section 301 tariffs
- No expiration date — Section 301 tariffs remain in force until actively removed
- No rate cap — Historical rates: 7.5% (List 1 China), 25% (Lists 2/3/4 China), 100% (certain EVs)
- Broad product scope — Section 301 can cover entire HTS chapters or specific 8/10-digit codes
- Country-specific — Unlike Section 122 (universal), Section 301 applies per-country per-investigation
- Stacks with other duties — Section 301 additions stack on top of MFN, Section 232, and remaining Section 122 window
- Treasury Bessent statement — Publicly predicted return to pre-SCOTUS tariff levels by August 2026
The 2026 Section 301 investigations are unprecedented in scope. The 2018 China investigations covered one country. The 2026 investigations target 60+ economies — nearly every major US import source. If findings are broad, Section 301 could become a de facto global tariff regime, not a targeted one. This is the central risk for supply chain diversification strategies built on moving production out of China.
Frequently Asked Questions
Run your landed cost before the deadline
Model current Section 122 rates and compare to post-July scenarios — all tariff layers, all origins.